Ten years from now you will look back and remember the news events of 2008 - the recall of (former) President Thabo Mbeki whilst helping to resolve Zimbabwe’s problems; the swearing in of (new) President Petrus Kgalema Motlanthe; the split in the ANC; the meltdown in global financial, credit and housing markets; how the oil price nosedived and food prices rose; and the election of Barack Obama, the first black president of the United States of America.

Much of what happens post 2008 will depend on what action is taken. In an edited version of an address given by Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank to the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, published in the Cape Times last month, he argues that there is a danger that the global financial crisis will result in shrinking trade and investment as a result of a drop in exports and capital inflow; he suggests ways to overhaul markets and mechanisms for co-operation; and notes that crisis is also an opportunity.
New economic powers are on the rise, want to be heard, and offer new possibilities, he said, but the developed economy is threatened by the changes.

“With growth rates averaging about 6,6% between 1997 and 2007 some 25 countries in sub-Saharan Africa with almost two thirds of the region’s population, offer a vision of yet another pole of growth that might be developed over the coming decades. This could be a great achievement not only for overcoming poverty and for development, but also freeing untapped talents and energies.

“But it will be an achievement left unrealised unless we have the vision and the courage to stand up to the challenges of economic isolationism at home and to offer the leadership to make it happen… to bring new technologies to market … and to provide an opportunity for developing countries to make longer term investments to reduce vulnerability to high and volatile fuel prices whilst supporting the poor with safety nets.”
A Scenarios 2025: The future we chose? report compiled by the Policy Coordination and Advisory Services (PCAS) unit of the Presidency (South Africa) identifies 24 factors that would shape the future of the country, further defined to form the seven key driving forces that were likely to affect South Africa’s development. These are shifts in global economic and political power, resource constraints, the country’s economic growth, governance, social fabric, and technology.

The report notes that that the growth of Brazil, Russia, India and China, as well as the “oil bounty” of Middle Eastern countries, will do more for Africa’s economic growth in the next 20 years than 60 years of investment and aid from Western countries had done.

This was also highlighted at the third summit of the India Brazil South Africa (IBSA) Dialogue Forum held in Delhi in October. Commenting that there was a compelling’ case for stronger South-South trade links, Mandisi Mpahlwa, South Africa’s Trade & Industry Minister said the “world stood on the cusp of significant changes in the global economy, marked by the rise of countries such as China, India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Argentina.”

So as hopes fade for the Doha global trade negotiations in the WTO to be completed this year; Tshediso Matona, the director-general of the Department of Trade & Industry is calling for the African region to embrace a free trade agenda.

But growth in trade means an efficient and cost-effective ports system and Transnet National Ports Authority will have to consider entering into public-private partnerships to fund the port infrastructure investment South Africa would require in future, said its engineer Chris Matchett, during a shipping industry discussion forum hosted by the Industrial Development Corporation.
He said the Port Development Framework Plans for each commercial port are driven by long term cargo forecasts (30 years) and investment in port infrastructure is estimated at R230bn over that time.
Finally you are reminded that National Maritime Day was on 25 September, focusing attention on the importance of shipping safety, maritime security and the marine environment. In his address at the World Maritme Day celebrations in Durban, Jeff

Radebe, Minister of Transport sums up: “South Africa relies on its ports and maritime industry to keep us connected to the global economy… our register is still not in a healthy state…. we urge the maritime sector to strengthen its position as an integral part of our transport network, and an integral part of our economy. And for that to happen, we need to do all we can to ensure that we have an efficient, competitive and sustainable maritime sector in place.”

Editor

Cover Story

SMIT Amandla Marine’s Pentow Salvor took the major role of offshore support to the American aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt on her recent call to Cape Town. The tug was on charter to De Beers, however in the spirit of co-operation, De Beers agreed to release her to assist, as had she not been available it would have made the carrier’s call to Cape Town extremely challenging. The USS Theodore Roosevelt is the world’s biggest aircraft carrier and has over 5 000 crew onboard. See report inside.